These are the main conclusions from the Transport Monitor of leading supply chain and logistics consulting company BCI Global. For the tenth time an esteemed panel of shippers and manufacturers gave their expectations on freight rates developments for the next six months.
In the last 12 months, despite economic slowdowns and fierce competition, the European freight rates increased due to inflation and high fuel costs. The BCI panel expects that the road freight rates will increase with 8% in the next six months. Reasons: inflation, driver wage increases, and investments in electric trucks. “But also the upcoming toll increase in Germany plays an important role. The so-called Maut will nearly double as of December 1st, from 19 Eurocents to 35 cents per kilometer”, explains Carlo Peters, Principal Consultant at BCI Global. Parcel freight rates are also expected to increase 4% (domestic) up to 7% cross-border (within Europe).
"The times of skyrocketing global ocean freight rates are definitely over” says Robert Wieggers, Principal Consultant at BCI: “Continuation at the current all time low is expected despite the fact that the European Trade System surcharge to reduce CO2 emissions levels will become valid as of January 2024. Our estimate is a 25-75 euro additional cost per container and it is the expectation that carriers most likely will not be able to pass these additional costs to their customers”.
Global air freight rates will drop with 5% in the next 6 months. “The demand is expected to stay weak”, says senior consultant Henry van den Born. “Even taking the upcoming peak season into account, full warehouses and recession fears do not make the market enthusiastic, while the available belly freight capacity in passenger planes increases”.
More information: reach out to
Carlo Peters, Principal Consultant (carlo.peters@bciglobal.com M: +31 6 22 91 72 54)
Robert Wieggers, Principal Consultant (robert.wieggers@bciglobal.com M: +31 6 11 18 35 88)
